Prices and spending signal a strong economy, perhaps too strong for the Fed

Another report on consumer inflation is expected in the coming week. The same is true for an indicator of consumer spending. Together, they can show how American buyers absorb higher prices.
No one had inflation on their holiday shopping list, but that’s what a lot of people have found. From gasoline to toys, appliances to hotel rooms, inflation was an unwanted vacation guest. The December Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday, followed by December retail sales on Friday.
Inflationary trends have dominated investor worries lately, especially as higher than desired inflation prompted the Federal Reserve to end its program of economic support for buying bonds months earlier. provided that. Consumer inflation in November hit its highest annual rate in over 40 years. December’s figure shouldn’t show much freshness.
What was believed to be transient inflation has proven to be tolerable, at least for now. The higher prices have not turned consumers away.
The COVID-19 omicron wave that started in late December may have reduced some spending in restaurants and travel, but it has likely shifted that spending to other activities and giveaways. The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to increase 11.5% from a year ago.
This kind of expense helps fuel higher prices. After all, one definition of inflation is that there is too much demand for too little supply.
Many Americans have cash and credit and use both. The personal savings rate was above 10 percent for most of last year. Personal credit scores have hit a new high. And consumers are using their credit cards again. After dropping for about a year and a half, credit card debt is on the rise again.
It is important to note that inflation does not affect all American households in the same way. For wealthier Americans, high prices tend to creep in – more troublesome than budget spending. For the poorest Americans, inflation devastates their often precarious financial situation.
Expectations about prices and spending may be more important than inflation and actual spending, because those expectations drive financial decisions today. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows inflation expectations for next year are higher than they have been since the Great Recession.
It’s hard for economic growth to falter or slide with the American consumer spending their pandemic-induced savings and COVID stimulus money. Instead, concern shifted to an economy that was too hot.
This week’s consumer inflation and retail sales data will likely add to that narrative.
The Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC (Dreamstime / TNS)
Financial reporter Tom Hudson hosts “The Sunshine Economy” on WLRN-FM in Miami, where he is vice president of news. He is the former co-presenter and editor of the “Nightly Business Report” on public television. Follow him on Twitter @HudsonsView.